Forecast Calibration / Predictive-Accuracy

Where did the pre-flight forecast UNDER-predict your real risk?

AgentSmack has a strong STATIC on-ramp — the defense-posture forecast predicts, per adversarial technique, which of your declared defenses would resist vs land, before a single probe fires. And it has a strong DYNAMIC layer — every scan surface emits a real failed/clean outcome. This lens is the predict→observe loop nothing else closes: it confusion-matrices each per-technique forecast against the actual outcome of that technique's target surface and answers the one CISO question no competitor will — can I trust AgentSmack's own pre-flight forecast, and where did it UNDER-predict my real risk? The load-bearing output is the dangerous false-negative band: techniques the forecast said would be resisted that actually failed live — the pre-flight blind spot, and the first thing to re-harden. It is purely compositional: it re-runs nothing, reusing the defense-posture forecast and the canonical findings envelope verbatim. And it is honestly humble — a technique whose target surface was never tested is not observed and excluded from the accuracy math (never silently counted as a pass), and precision / recall / accuracy read “—” rather than a fabricated 100 when their denominator is zero. It adds no new surface and no new dimension.